Buenos Aires, November 17, 2025 – Total News Agency-TNA– The national government reported a notable fiscal surplus in October, aligned with its program goals with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), reinforcing its fiscal anchor strategy as the fiscal year and legislative elections draw to a close. However, sector analysts warn that the end of the year will entail additional costs, such as bonus payments and potential tariff adjustments that could erode the surplus margin. From the private sector, the news was interpreted as a boost for the credibility of the economic program. In terms of subsidies, the total amount reached $1,041,225 million (+27.1%), with increases of 28.2% for energy and 27.3% for transportation. The result is not insignificant: it confirms that the government has posted a surplus for 21 of the last 22 months, a figure that aligns with President Javier Milei's social media post: “The iron anchor.” According to the Ministry of Economy's report, the National Public Sector (SPN) recorded a primary surplus of $823,925 million and a financial surplus of $517,672 million during the month, equivalent to approximately 1.4% and 0.5% of the accumulated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first ten months, respectively. The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, highlighted that this trend occurs in a critical electoral context and emphasized that “fiscal and monetary order has limited the impact on the population of the fall in money demand generated by political volatility.” Nevertheless, it also raises expectations about the implementation of pending reforms in labor, tax, and productive areas that the Executive Branch must face for the improvement in accounts to translate into sustainable growth. In the medium term, the key will be for the government to translate the fiscal surplus into an increase in real wages, formal employment, and a reduction in inflation, without resorting to monetary expansion or the use of reserves. This expression symbolizes the Executive's willingness to maintain fiscal balance even amidst political and economic uncertainty. Although the accumulated figure for the first ten months matches a primary surplus of 1.4% of GDP, the target agreed with the IMF for 2025 is 1.6%. The main drivers of revenue were import duties (+65.7% year-on-year), the Income Tax (+41.8%), debits and credits (+41.2%), and social security contributions (+35.9%). However, critical voices point out that the real growth of some incomes is already contracting against inflation, which could limit the sustainability of the adjustment, and that subsidy levels remain high year-on-year, posing risks for upcoming spending blocks. On the political front, disclosing the surplus in the midst of legislative elections could affect public perception and voting, as it reinforces the official message of fiscal discipline and orderly governance. These figures reflect, according to the Ministry of Finance, the effect of measures such as the 2024 validity of the PAIS tax and the income generated by the exteriorization of assets and the Special Regime for Personal Property Tax Income (REIBP). On the spending side, the official report detailed that social benefits amounted to $6,891,369 million (+31.5% year-on-year) and public sector remunerations reached $1,416,199 million (+21.9%). Current transfers to the private sector totaled $4,131,125 million (+15.1%), with $453,927.6 million being the increase directed to that segment (+16.7%). Meeting the target with the IMF could unlock external resources and deepen Argentina's insertion into international markets, boosting investments. Therefore, two key months remain to adjust accounts and achieve full program compliance. In particular, it was explained that primary expenses fell 1.3% in real terms compared to October of the previous year, while total spending reached $11,163,268 million with a year-on-year variation of 29.6%. In terms of income, SPN totals for October reached $11,987,193 million with a year-on-year variation of +28.1%. However, the fragility of the local economy, structural challenges, and the adverse political context constitute warning signals that the Economy team cannot overlook.
Argentine Government Reports Notable Fiscal Surplus in October
The Argentine government reported a notable fiscal surplus in October 2025, aligning with its IMF program goals. Analysts warn of potential year-end risks due to additional costs. This result strengthens the government's economic strategy, though questions about long-term sustainability remain.
